The Monty Hall Question - Simple Math

You are in a talk show. The talk show host says, "Pick one of these three doors." You pick one, but don't tell anyone which one you picked. The show host opens a different door and behind it is a goat! One of the other doors has a car and the other one has another goat. Should you switch, or stay with your original pick? If you get the answer right, I will PM you right away. Give a viable reason or It won't be right. Please only answer once. If you don't get the answer right, I will do nothing. Please do not post the answer here, or tell anyone if you got it wrong/right. Good luck.

shouldnt this be in rp?

No, and RPG mean Role Playing Game, you don't have a character or an empire in this. It's a simple question.

if i payed attention to the movie 21, i could give you the answer

according to 21 you should always switch the doors as it had a 33.3% chance of correct, but after the 1 wrong answer is removed there is a 66.6 % of getting it correct.

However i beleive that it is actually a 50% chance for the second.

Arg, the movie 21 made me so angry.

The actual person it was based off of was Chinese! He was a poor Chinese kid who got into MIT and joined the gambling club to pay off college debt. And, most of the rest of the team was Asian as well, and Persian/Greek. There was actually one white female though, I think.

该死的 director and producer, casting white people for asian roles. The same thing happened in Forbidden Kingdom and DragonBall:Evolution (came out last week). Who in their right mind would cast a random white kid as Goku? I mean, Goku is definitely not white. And the white kid sucked at acting.

but in opposition to this argument is Michael Hobbes "equal opportunity principle" which basically states that at the first tier (3 options-1 correct) every option has an "equal opportunity" to be correct, however when an option is removed the next tier (2 options 1-correct) the chance of success is redistributed among the remaining options. So according to this the first pick has a 33.3% chance of getting it correct, however once one door is removed the chance of getting it correct is redistributed to the remaining 2 options making your first choice a 50% and the other possible option a 50%. In summary to this principle, no matter how many times you switch or to what option you switch, every option will have an "equal opportunity"

FlashFreak22 wrote:You are in a talk show. The talk show host says, "Pick one of these three doors." You pick one, but don't tell anyone which one you picked. The show host opens a different door and behind it is a goat! One of the other doors has a car and the other one has another goat. Should you switch, or stay with your original pick? If you get the answer right, I will PM you right away. Give a viable reason or It won't be right. Please only answer once. If you don't get the answer right, I will do nothing. Please do not post the answer here, or tell anyone if you got it wrong/right. Good luck.

Well I'm afraid, as people have become caught up in the technicalities of the situation, I will say stick. As I would have listened for the door that didn't have bleating behind it.

Shemuel wrote:I will say stick. As I would have listened for the door that didn't have bleating behind it.

Logic trumps all!!